Each player's full card, not just the five that counted. Week 5 on the left, running season on the right, ranked by season win %.
Player
Week 5
Season
1
Dan— no move
5-455.6%
26-2353.1%
2
Chris▲ 1
7-653.8%
33-3350.0%
3
Jim▼ 1
4-544.4%
21-2248.8%
4
Ryan▲ 1
8-466.7%
28-3147.5%
5
Lee▼ 1
3-260.0%
23-2646.9%
Posse combined
27-2156.3%
131-13549.2%
Season records are re-graded from every raw pick against final scores each week, not carried forward from the prior page. A push counts as neither a win nor a loss: Lee, Chris, Jim and Ryan each took one push this week, all from the Bengals-Dolphins game, so their season lines are really Lee 23-26-1, Chris 33-33-1, Ryan 28-31-1 and Jim 21-22-1. Movement arrows compare to the Week 4 ranking.
Cumulative win rate by week
Dan is first for the second straight week and the only player above .500. Ryan jumped from last to fourth on an 8-4-1 week. Lee improved a little and still finished last.
The Official Entry
Pulltab Posse's five Week 5 picks as submitted. Season record on the official entry: 14-10-1 (58.3%), with a 3-2, 3-2, 3-2, 2-3, 3-1-1 week-by-week run.
Steelers −2.5
IND 22 – PIT 34 (won by 12)
COVER
Vikings −2.5
MIN 23 – NO 13 (won by 10)
COVER
Bengals −7
CIN 31 – MIA 24 (won by exactly 7)
PUSH
Raiders +3.5
LV 17 – NE 45 (lost by 28)
NO COVER
Packers +3
CHI 7 – GB 31 (won by 24)
COVER
Confident Picks
Win rate on picks tagged Confident, versus everything else. The gold line is 50%, break-even.
Confident, season
39.2%
38-59
Week 5: 57.1% (8-6)
Everything else, season
55.0%
93-76
Week 5: 55.9% (19-15)
Confident win rate by player
Bright bar is Week 5, faded bar is the season. Chris went 3-1 on his tags and has the best Confident record in the group. Ryan's 4-12 is the worst, and his single Week 5 tag (Broncos −3.5) was his first Confident winner since Week 3.
WEEK 5SEASON50%
Lee
50.0%2-2
37.9%11-18
Dan
50.0%1-1
41.7%5-7
Chris
75.0%3-1
45.8%11-13
Ryan
100.0%1-0
25.0%4-12
Jim
33.3%1-2
43.8%7-9
Week 5 was the first winning Confident week of the season for the posse as a whole (8-6, after 8-8, 9-15, 7-13 and 6-17). The season line still sits at 38-59: the tag has lost 59 of 97 decided times, and a record that lopsided would show up by luck about 2% of the time against a coin flip (p≈0.02), so the gap is narrowing but still looks real. Week lines for single players rest on one to five tags and are noise by themselves. Lee's tag record also carries one push. All records on this page are counted directly from the raw pick rows.
Situational Splits
Win rate of every pick the posse made, sliced by game situation. Each pair shows Week 5 against the season so far, so a one-week swing is easy to tell from a real pattern.
WEEK 5SEASON50%
Favorites vs. underdogs
After four weeks of dogs running the table, Week 5 was even: favorites covered 56.0% and underdogs 56.5%. We laid points on 28 of our 52 picks, down from 73% last week. League-wide on the contest board, favorites went 7-7-1. The season gap is still huge, 58.1% on dogs against 45.0% on favorites.
Underdogsgetting points
56.5%13-10
58.1%50-36
Favoriteslaying points
56.0%14-11
45.0%81-99
Home vs. away
Away picks went 16-6 while home picks went 10-13. That moved the season away rate from 43.8% to 48.5% and left home at 50.8%.
Home
43.5%10-13
50.8%63-61
Away
72.7%16-6
48.5%65-69
NeutralLondon / Melbourne
33.3%1-2
37.5%3-5
Divisional vs. non-divisional
Divisional picks broke even at 10-9 after last week's 2-12, but the season record inside the division is still 33-45 (42.3%). The Packers, Broncos and 49ers picks did the work.
Divisional
52.6%10-9
42.3%33-45
Non-div
58.6%17-12
52.1%98-90
Kickoff window, Week 5
The Sunday late window went 8-3 (72.7%) and Monday night went 3-1, a big change from last week's 0-for-10 at night. Season-long slot tracking is still being built.
Intl London
33.3%1-2
Sun AMearly window
51.9%14-13
Sun PMlate window
72.7%8-3
SNF
33.3%1-2
MNF
75.0%3-1
* Under 10 picks, so don't read anything into it. The Rams and 49ers opened the season in Melbourne (Week 1, 0-2 for us), the Colts and Commanders played in London in Week 4 (2-1), and the Eagles and Jaguars played there this week (1-2). Neutral-site picks are in neither the home nor the away bars. Thursday's Buccaneers-Cowboys game had no posse picks (the group skips Thursday).
Vs. The Field
Westgate's Week 5 Weekly Selections sheet. Our entry is on it as PULL TAB POSSE - 1 and matches our five picks exactly. Percentages use 595 entries, counted from the sheet (2,975 picks, five per entry). Westgate's standings list 596; the one entry missing from the selections sheet (SQX-1) shows no Week 5 points.
% of the field that agreed with each pick (not a win rate)
Bar color = how the pick finished (gold is a push). Steelers were our most popular pick and the field's most popular team overall. Bengals and Vikings were our two most contrarian picks: the Vikings cashed and the Bengals pushed.
The field's 5 favorite teams: how'd the crowd do?
Team
% of field
Result
Steelers
36.0%
COVER
Rams
29.7%
No cover
Packers
29.7%
COVER
Chargers
25.9%
No cover
Saints
25.5%
No cover
The crowd's top 5 went 2-for-5 (40%). Our entry scored 3.5 of 5 against a field average of 2.28, which ties us for 53rd of 595 entries on the week by itself. Only 52 entries scored 4 or more. Overlapping the crowd on the Steelers and Packers, and sitting out the Rams, Chargers and Saints, is where the 1.5-point edge over the consensus came from.
Team ATS Watch
Every NFL team's running record against Westgate's fixed contest line through Week 5, regardless of who picked them, split by home and away. Sorted best to worst.
Team
ATS
Home
Away
No team matches that search.
No team is perfect anymore: the Raiders' 4-0 ended with a 28-point loss to the Patriots. The 49ers, Bills, Giants, Patriots, Raiders and Vikings lead at 4-1, while the Chargers, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Texans sit at 1-4. Neutral-site games (Rams and 49ers in Melbourne, Colts and Commanders and then Eagles and Jaguars in London) count in the ATS column but not in Home or Away. The Bengals-Dolphins game landed exactly on the number and counts for neither team, so both show four graded games. Thursday games (Lions-Bills in Week 2, Falcons-Packers in Week 3, Buccaneers-Cowboys in Week 5) were graded from the final score because no posse member picked them; the Week 5 Thursday line (Cowboys −8.5) comes from the odds feed and could not be checked against Westgate's printed sheet, though Tampa Bay won outright, 24-16, so any line near that number grades the same way.
Prize Windows & Real Rank
Westgate's real prize structure. Full breakdown on the About page.
Overall season pool, 1st place
42%
of the season prize pool, top-20 paid
In-season bonus pool
$575,000
split across 11 sub-contests
In-season bonus contests: where we stand 2 ACTIVE · 1 FINAL
Contest
Record
Rank
Top 3 pay
3-Week #1 Wks 1-3 · FINAL
9-6
T-77th
$15K / $10K / $5K
3-Week #2 Wks 4-6
5-4-1
Pending
$15K / $10K / $5K
6-Week #1 Wks 1-6
14-10-1
T-97th
$25K / $15K / $10K
9-Week #1 Wks 1-9
14-10-1
T-97th
$50K / $30K / $20K
3-Week #1 closed with Weeks 1-3: tied 77th, no cash (top 20 paid). 3-Week #2 is 5-4-1 through two of its three weeks (2-3 then 3-1-1); its rank comes from Westgate's separate Week 4-6 in-season standings, which weren't available for this update, so it is pending rather than estimated. The 6-Week and 9-Week windows still include every pick we've made, so their records equal our season record and their rank equals our overall rank. Seven more bonus windows open later in the season.
Where we actually rank
After Week 5 we are tied for 97th at 14-10-1 out of 596 entries, straight from Westgate's Week 5 standings: 96 entries are ahead of us and 12 share our 14.5 points. That is roughly the top 16%, up 39 spots from tied for 136th. The leader is 19-6 and places 17 through 21 are tied at 16.5, so the top-20 payout line sits 2.0 points above us, two full games. It is a smaller hole than the three-game gap we had after Week 4, and a big week or two closes it. The realistic targets are still the in-season windows and the stretch run.
Closing Line Value
Individual closing-line-value plays tracked so far, on top of the official entry's shared CLV. Only Week 1 has been tracked; Weeks 2 through 5 aren't in these numbers because the full-slate closing-line source isn't nailed down. Full breakdown on the Week 1 report.
Dan
+3.0
Jim
+3.0
Ryan
0.0
Chris and Lee have no individual side-bet picks tracked yet.
This Week's Storylines
Ryan went from last place to fourth on an 8-4-1 week
66.7% (8-4-1) is the best week by win rate that any of us has had since the opening weekend, and it lifts him from 42.6% to 47.5% (28-31-1), past Lee. Four of his eight winners cleared the number by 10 or more: Patriots −3.5 by 24.5, Packers +3 by 27, Lions −5.5 by 18.5 and Ravens +3.5 by 10.5. He was also alone on Eagles +7.5 in London (covered by 5.5), Patriots and Ravens, and his lone Dolphins +7 pushed. His single Confident, Broncos −3.5, covered by 2.5.
Dan stays on top, barely
5-4 (55.6%) was enough to stay first at 26-23 (53.1%), and he is the only one of us above .500. His Confident 49ers +3 won by 6, his Confident Browns +2.5 lost by 2.5, and he was on the Raiders at +3.5, which lost by 24.5 (see below). Chris is second at an even 50.0% and Jim slipped to third.
Raiders +3.5 cost three of us, plus the official entry
Las Vegas lost 45-17 at New England, a 24.5-point miss on the number for Dan, Chris, Jim and the shared entry. Chris, who had been 4-0 on the Raiders, is now 4-1.
Jaguars −7.5 in London: two Confident tags, two losses
Jacksonville won 19-17, five and a half points short. Chris and Jim both tagged it Confident, and only Ryan was on the other side with Eagles +7.5. The group is now 1-12 on the Eagles all season and 9-4 on the Jaguars, and the neutral-site record is 3-5.
Every push came from one game
Bengals 31, Dolphins 24 landed exactly on seven. Chris, Jim (Confident) and Lee (Confident) took Bengals −7, Ryan took Dolphins +7, and the official entry sat on Bengals too. Those are all four of the posse's pushes this season, which is why the season lines now carry a third number.
The Commanders-Giants tie was a loss for the favorite
27-27 after overtime. A tie means margin zero plus the line, so Commanders −3.5 lost for Ryan, Dan and Lee (Confident) and Giants +3.5 won for Chris, who was alone on it. Lee ended the week 3-2-1, with the tie and a Confident Seahawks −3 miss (a 32-29 loss to San Francisco) as the damage.
Packers +3 was the safest bet of the year, except for Jim
Green Bay won 31-7 over Chicago and covered by 27. Ryan, Dan, Chris and Lee (Confident) all took the Packers. Jim was alone on Bears −3 as a Confident pick and missed by 27, the biggest single miss on any of our cards. Across the season the posse is now 4-8 on the Packers after starting 0-8.
Monday night finally paid
Bills +3 for Ryan, Dan and Jim won easily when Buffalo beat the Rams 37-34 in overtime, a 6-point cover. Only Chris was on Rams −3, which lost. After last week's 0-for-10 across both night games, Monday went 3-1 and Sunday's late window went 8-3.
Confident finally had a winning week
8-6 (57.1%) is the first week above 50% for the tag all season, led by Chris at 3-1 (Steelers, Jets, Lions won, Jaguars lost). It still trails everything else by more than 15 points on the season, 39.2% against 55.0%.
Team Affinity
What this tracks: who keeps picking the same team no matter how it has gone. Players with three or more picks on one team, only the perfect and winless ones. Across the whole posse, Eagles are 1-12 and Texans 0-9, while Vikings are 13-1 and Steelers 7-2.
Player
Team
Picks
Record
Jim
Vikings
4
4-0
Ryan
Jaguars
3
3-0
Ryan
Patriots
3
3-0
Lee
Texans
4
0-4
Ryan
Texans
4
0-4
Lee
Eagles
3
0-3
Chris
Eagles
3
0-3
Jim
Eagles
3
0-3
Lee
Commanders
3
0-3
Lee
Seahawks
3
0-3
COMING AS THE SEASON BUILDS
3-Week #2 rank (Weeks 4-6), once Westgate's in-season standings are in hand
Week 6 overall rank, once Westgate posts it (the 6-Week and 9-Week ranks equal the overall rank)
Closing Line Value for Weeks 2 and beyond, once the full-slate closing-card source is locked down
Season-long kickoff-window splits (Weeks 4 and 5 slot data are the first)
Team heat map: every team picked all year, shaded by cover rate
CORRECTIONS TO EARLIER PAGES
Home and away were reversed on several Week 1 to 3 games in the working data (scores listed winner-first, read as home-first). Team scores and every W-L grade were right, but the home/away splits and the team ATS table were affected. Orientation is now taken from sources that mark visitor and home explicitly, and the Week 2 splits are corrected on that page.
The Team ATS table was carried forward from week to week and had drifted (Steelers showed 3-0 and Patriots 1-2 through Week 3; both were 2-1). It was rebuilt from scratch for Weeks 1 to 4, and Week 5 was added on top of that rebuilt table.
The Week 2 page said Westgate pays "around the top 100." The real structure pays the top 20.
The Week 4 page originally showed the official rank as pending. It now carries Westgate's posted figure, tied for 136th of 596.
The Season Stats page is retired. Everything on it lives on this page now.